How accurate is The Guardian's Next Generation?
The Guardian has done an annual article since 2014 with top talents of the Next Generation; generally speaking it is players in their age 17 year relative to the article publication. The more recent lists have included 60 players, 2015 has 50 and 2014 has 40. Here are some links:
A quick scan down those lists shows that most of the listed players do not amount of much so its not really worth deep diving into the careers of people who never made it to the big time. Instead, I thought I would take a look at the current Transfermarkt top 10 and top 50 players by market value for each year, and see how many hits these lists actually got.
I’ll analyze the players through 2003 (age 21 in 2024); for the younger cohorts we certainly haven’t seen all the real top players of those classes establish themselves yet.
I will list all the top 10 players on the Next Generation list and any other top 50 players that made the list. Then I'll add the rest of the top 10 that didn't make the list so you can see a comparison of who was on and who was off. I'll also list some notable names that would have made the list at one point but have come down in value. Finally I will give a verdict on the Next Generation class, with the number of top 50 players on the list out of the total.
2014 - Born 1997
Top 10 hits: none
Other top 50 hits: Ousmane Dembele, Dominic Solanke, Ruben Neves, Youri Tielemans, Malcom
Top 10 misses: Lautaro Martinez, Bruno Guimaraes, Luis Diaz, Rubin Dias, Nicolo Barella, Gabriel Magalhaes, Christopher Nkunku, Marcus Thuram, Bremer, Theo Hernandez
Result: 5 / 40
2015 - Born 1998
Top 10 hits: Federico Valverde, Martin Odegaard
Other top 50 hits: Dani Olmo, Dayot Upamecano, Christian Pulisic, Manuel Locatelli
Top 10 misses: Kylian Mbappe, Alexis MacAllister, Victor Osimhen, Douglas Luiz, Viktor Gyokeres, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Christian Romero, Eberechi Eze
Result: 6 / 50
2016 - Born 1999
Top 10 hits: Alexander Isak, Kai Havertz
Other top 50 hits: Matthijs de Light, Diogo Dalot, Gianluigi Donnarumma, Brahim Diaz, Gianluca Scamacca
Top 10 misses: Declan Rice, Rafael Leao, Ronald Araujo, Alessandro Bastoni, Darwin Nunez, Martin Zubimendi, Cody Gakpo, Moussa Diaby
Result: 7 / 60
2017 - Born 2000
Top 10 hits: Erling Haaland, Vinicius Junior, Dominik Szoboszlai, Pedro Neto
Other top 50 hits: Alphonso Davies, Jadon Sancho, Ferran Torres, Jorgen Strand Larsen, Amine Gouiri, Callum Hudson-Odoi
Top 10 Misses: Phil Foden, Aurelian Tchouameni, Julian Alvarez, Dusan Vlahovic, Lois Openda, Vitinha
Result: 10 / 60
2018 - Born 2001
Top 10 hits: Rodrygo, Kvicha Kvaratskhelia
Other top 50 hits: Takefusa Kubo, Mason Greenwood, Khephren Thuram, Curtis Jones, Thiago Almada, Kang-in Lee
Top 10 Misses: Bukayo Saka, William Saliba, Moises Caicedo, Enzo Fernandez, Michael Olise, Gabriel Martinelli, Anthony Gordon, Micky van de Ven
Result: 8 / 60
2019 - Born 2002
Top 10 hits: Eduardo Camavinga, Pedri, Josko Gvardiol, Jeremy Doku
Other top 50 hits: Riccardo Calafiori, Ryan Gravenberch, Georginio Rutter, Aaron Hickey, Yunus Mush, Lazar Samardzic
Top 10 Misses: Cole Palmer, Nico Williams, Bradley Barcola, Nuno Mendes, Pape Saar, Destiny Udogie
Result: 10 / 60
2020 - Born 2003
Top 10 hits: Florian Wirtz, Jamal Musiala, Xavi Simons, Benjamin Sesko
Other top 50 hits: Jhon Duran, Rayan Cherki, Wilfried Gnonto, Fabio Miretti
Top 10 Misses: Jude Bellingham, Rasmus Hojlund, Fermin Lopez, Levi Colwill, Giorgio Scalvini
Result: 8 / 60