Why are people so bullish when the UNRATE trend is so clear about recession?

If you look at the long term history of the unemployment rate, there's very clear cycles where it makes U-shaped trends from a low and then jumps high along with a recession. The current trend is clearly following this, and based on history is on the verge of a sharp rise along with recession: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

Most of the talk at the moment has been about soft landing, recession avoided, and Treasury yields are rising again. Presumably this is partly because of expected growth and a halting/slowing of FFR cuts?

Are people expecting that the unemployment trend will turn around and drop/flatten, while the economy grows again for a long period? This has never happened in history based on unemployment trends