Newspoll: Majority in mood for change after just one term of Labor, hung parliament looms
A majority of voters do not believe the federal Labor government deserves to be re-elected, with Anthony Albanese’s approval rating hitting a record low of minus 21.
But voters remain reluctant to swing behind Peter Dutton in sufficient numbers for the Coalition to win in a majority government, as MPs prepare for a federal election to be called potentially within weeks. An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows the Coalition maintaining a 51-49 per cent two-party-preferred lead over Labor despite a one-point fall in its primary vote to 38 per cent.
Labor’s primary vote remains stuck on an equal record low of 31 per cent, compared to its 2022 election result of 32.6 per cent. The two-party-preferred result indicates a 3.1 per cent swing against Labor since the last election.
On a uniform basis and taking into account new margins created by electoral redistributions, the swing would be equivalent to the loss of seven or eight seats and enough to prevent Mr Albanese forming a majority government.
However, it is still only half the size of the swing the Coalition would require to win in its own right, leaving a hung parliament the most likely outcome if the poll numbers were to be replicated at an election. The Newspoll surveyed 1244 voters nationally between February 10 and 14 and follows a two-week parliamentary sitting which many MPs believe will have been the last before the election, with scepticism growing that Jim Chalmers will deliver a budget on March 25 as planned.
The political contest has been dominated by the trade dispute between Canberra and Washington following Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Australian steel and aluminium exports.
Labor has tried to steer the debate to health, announcing several billion dollars in spending promises, including a women’s health package – which the Coalition said it would support – and more funding for the Northern Territory.
Anti-Semitism also continued to dominate following the sacking of two NSW nurses over an online tirade in which they threatened to kill Israeli patients. But there has been little movement in the Newspoll numbers since the first poll of the year in late January. The Greens remain on 12 per cent, with One Nation maintaining a primary vote of 7 per cent.
Other minor parties and independents have lifted a point to 12 per cent, at the expense of the Coalition in the latest poll, suggesting the protest vote against both major parties remains strong.
Mr Albanese’s approval rating remained unchanged on a record low of 37 per cent. But with a one-point rise in dissatisfaction, the Prime Minister’s net negative approval rating rose to minus 21 which is the lowest since he became leader.